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SF Kid
07-02-2008, 10:42 AM
Cain's gem answers critics

Henry Schulman, Chronicle Staff Writer
Wednesday, July 2, 2008

(07-01) 22:28 PDT -- Imagine a pitcher built like a Humvee who surely will record his 500th big-league strikeout and 30th win before his 24th birthday. He already has a menacing mid-90s fastball and a quality curveball, slider and changeup that lack only consistency of delivery. Would you find fault with this pitcher?

Believe it or not, there are rumblings in the Giants' fandom (see Bear) about Matt Cain, questions about his upside because he is not one of the league's biggest winners yet. The rejoinder is simple. Cain is still 23. He has not made 100 big-league starts yet.

His 88th was a thing of gold, his best of the season. He blanked the Cubs on two hits for eight innings and struck out 10 in a 2-1 victory Tuesday night, the Giants' fourth in their last 19 home games.

And for those who believe we saw the best of Cain last year or the year before?

"I just say stick around and watch the show," closer Brian Wilson said. "He's still young. He's still maturing. Every pitcher gets in a rut. You can fix it. That tonight was the epitome of pitching. That's the Matt Cain I remember when I first came up in '06."

Cain lasted eight innings for the second time in three starts and earned his fifth win, which he did not accomplish last year until Aug. 18. It was his longest scoreless outing since he shut out the Rockies for eight innings on Sept. 14, 2006.

Wilson allowed a run in the ninth after Derrek Lee's leadoff triple but struck out Ryan Theriot on a vicious up-and-in fastball, with two aboard, for his 23rd save.

The Giants won for the fourth time in their last 19 home games, and Cain will be the first to admit he had lots of help in getting his team there.
Fred Lewis ignited the Giants with a single and double, two of the four hits against Jason Marquis in seven innings. Lewis scored both Giants runs, one on a double steal and the other on a Randy Winn single.

The defense also came up roses. Aaron Rowand made a running catch at the track on a Jim Edmonds blast with a man aboard in the seventh inning. In the eighth, Cain's night ended when Jose Castillo dived to stop a Mark DeRosa smash. Castillo bounced a long throw as he was rising and John Bowker made a nice pick at first.

Still, Cain was the ringmaster, neutralizing the league's highest-scoring offense with lively and well-spotted fastballs, beautiful rainbow curves and changeups.

"It was definitely something that was very much needed after my last start," Cain said, referring to a four-run, five-inning loss at Cleveland. "Coming into this start I was anxious to get it going, especially against these guys, who are doing so well."

With his fourth-inning strikeout of Daryle Ward, Cain reached 100 for the season, giving the Giants three 100-strikeout pitchers by the All-Star break for the first time in San Francisco history. Tim Lincecum has a league-leading 114 and Jonathan Sanchez 102.

With an ability to blow the ball by hitters as a 20-year-old rookie, Cain drew comparisons to every great power pitcher in the book. When he did not become Roger Clemens by 23, the whispers started. But baseball people who are asked about Cain look at his age and stuff and laugh at the questions.

Cain just needs to develop a consistent "out" pitch and learn to repeat his mechanics, they say. Meanwhile, some of the theories for his inconsistency are fascinating. According to one, he has gotten out of sorts by jealously trying to out-Lincecum Lincecum.

"We're always going to be competitive," Cain said. "But it's not like I'm mad at him or mad at myself because I'm not able to have the numbers he has."
Cain's win was born in the first inning when the Giants gave him a 1-0 lead. One of the team's best statistical splits in 2008 is their record when they score first: 25-15.

Lewis hit a leadoff single and advanced on Ray Durham's walk. After Winn grounded into a force, manager Bruce Bochy called for a hit-and-run with Bengie Molina, who foul-tipped a high fastball into Geovany Soto's glove. As soon as Soto threw to second, Lewis bolted for home, on his own, and made it without a throw. Lewis said it was his first steal of home ever.
"I've always wanted to do it," Lewis said, "but I wanted to do it like Omar (Vizquel) did."

Lewis is 27. He has a lot of years to accomplish a straight steal of home, just as Cain has a lot of years to become the star everyone expects him to be.
E-mail Henry Schulman at hschulman@sfchronicle.com.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/07/02/SPCF11I75E.DTL

Bear
07-02-2008, 11:25 AM
Talk is cheap. This is the kind of talk we heard after Zito's one good game. He's back. Bullshit! Now we hear Cain is the second coming. Yeah sure. Cain is 5-6 with a 4.13 ERA. Cy Young he is not. Average at best. In Summary he is not very good.:mad:

McCovey
07-02-2008, 11:47 AM
Cain is every bit as talented as Lincecum. I've been a big fan of his since he arrived in San Francisco. He actually had a very good year in '07, one the top 8-10 pitchers in the NL. His 7-16 record hides this fact. I posted this at WPF a while back. These are a batch of 17 starts that Cain made in '07.


Date IP H ER BB K Dec
04/09 7.0 1 1 5 4 L
04/17 7.0 2 0 3 7 ND
04/28 6.0 1 1 4 2 ND
05/19 6.1 6 3 4 9 L
05/25 6.2 4 2 4 5 ND
05/31 7.0 10 4 2 5 L
06/10 8.0 5 1 3 10 L
06/16 7.0 3 1 1 3 L
07/13 5.0 7 2 2 2 L
06/27 7.2 7 2 2 7 L
07/28 7.0 6 3 2 7 ND
08/03 7.1 5 2 1 11 ND
08/13 7.0 6 3 2 7 L
09/09 7.0 6 2 1 4 ND
09/15 6.0 1 1 0 6 L
09/20 6.0 7 2 2 4 L
09/25 7.0 5 2 1 8 ND
Cain had a 2.50 ERA, 1.052 WHIP, 101 K, 39 BB, 7.90 k/9, 3.05 BB/9, 2.59 K/9. This is Cy Young Award caliber pitching. For his fine work, Can got 10 losses and 7 no decisions. :mad:

McCovey
07-02-2008, 12:03 PM
It's happening again to Cain in '08. The team is not scoring runs for him.


Date IP H ER BB K Dec
04/01 5.2 3 0 4 5 ND
04/12 6.2 3 2 3 5 ND
04/23 7.0 5 1 3 7 ND
05/03 7.0 3 2 1 8 ND
05/25 6.0 5 2 2 6 ND
05/30 7.0 7 3 1 6 ND
06/14 7.0 6 3 1 11 L
This comes out to a 2.53 ERA, 0.971 WHIP, 46 K, 17 BB

SF Kid
07-02-2008, 12:51 PM
Talk is cheap. This is the kind of talk we heard after Zito's one good game. He's back. Bullshit! Now we hear Cain is the second coming. Yeah sure. Cain is 5-6 with a 4.13 ERA. Cy Young he is not. Average at best. In Summary he is not very good.:mad:Oh there you go again. The Bear is the ultimate front runner :chuckle:. Don't tell me you didn't say last season that Sanchez was done and should be sent to the minors or traded. McCovey can attest to it. Now you're swinging on Sanchez's sack and you're advocating that Matt Cain is nothing but a middle of the road pitcher --- at the age of 23. Sheese. :rolleyes: Let this post be memorialized for all time so we can point to it when Cain becomes the pitcher we all know he can be.

Cain is every bit as talented as Lincecum. I've been a big fan of his since he arrived in San Francisco. He actually had a very good year in '07, one the top 8-10 pitchers in the NL. His 7-16 record hides this fact. I posted this at WPF a while back. These are a batch of 17 starts that Cain made in '07.


Date IP H ER BB K Dec
04/09 7.0 1 1 5 4 L
04/17 7.0 2 0 3 7 ND
04/28 6.0 1 1 4 2 ND
05/19 6.1 6 3 4 9 L
05/25 6.2 4 2 4 5 ND
05/31 7.0 10 4 2 5 L
06/10 8.0 5 1 3 10 L
06/16 7.0 3 1 1 3 L
07/13 5.0 7 2 2 2 L
06/27 7.2 7 2 2 7 L
07/28 7.0 6 3 2 7 ND
08/03 7.1 5 2 1 11 ND
08/13 7.0 6 3 2 7 L
09/09 7.0 6 2 1 4 ND
09/15 6.0 1 1 0 6 L
09/20 6.0 7 2 2 4 L
09/25 7.0 5 2 1 8 ND
Cain had a 2.50 ERA, 1.052 WHIP, 101 K, 39 BB, 7.90 k/9, 3.05 BB/9, 2.59 K/9. This is Cy Young Award caliber pitching. For his fine work, Can got 10 losses and 7 no decisions. :mad:Amen.

Matt Cain for President. :righton:

Bear
07-02-2008, 04:43 PM
Enough! Bottom line at this point in time 7/2/08, Matt Cain is 5-6 with a 4.13 ERA. That my friends is not a good record. You can cry about this, and that, but his record says he is just not that good!:nono:

Bear
07-02-2008, 04:51 PM
Lets carry this Matt Cain thing a step further. Lifetime he is 27-35 with an ERA of 3.81. He has not had a winning season for the last 2 years. No guys it does not look good for Mr. Cain at this time. I hope he can turn it around but I would not bet the farm!:(

McCovey
07-02-2008, 04:58 PM
Enough! Bottom line at this point in time 7/2/08, Matt Cain is 5-6 with a 4.13 ERA. That my friends is not a good record. You can cry about this, and that, but his record says he is just not that good!:nono:
Bear, as I stated before, Cain's W-L record does not given a true indication as to his true effectiveness. That's all. I listed 17 starts from '07 where he pitched Cy Young Award caliber ball and got zero wins. You would think that if a pitcher has 17 starts, has a 2.50 ERA, 101 Ks, 39 BBs, he would have more than zero wins. And it continues in '08. I listed seven starts where Cain pitched great and got zero wins out of those seven starts. For some reason when Cain pitches the Giants offense takes the night off. :rolleyes:

Bear
07-02-2008, 05:05 PM
Part of being a great pitcher is your team plays behind you. For whatever reason Cain does not get the support of his team. Maybe they just don't like him? Anyway until he gets better results you all know my position.:rolleyes:

SF Kid
07-02-2008, 05:42 PM
I don't see how any fan can quit on a 23 year old guy who has the stats that Mac pointed out. Remember he's playing on a terrible team. Luck plays some part in it too. Lincecum has bee pretty lucky to get some runs scored for him. Cain hasn't for the most part.

Bear
07-02-2008, 05:50 PM
Kid, you really do not believe that Cain is as good as Lincecum do you? They are light years apart in talent and mental toughness! :confused:

McCovey
07-02-2008, 05:56 PM
Tell you what guys. I 'll go check out how much run support Cain and Lincecum get. That should shed a lot of light for sure. I suspect that Lincecum gets a great deal more run support than Cain does.

Bear
07-02-2008, 06:01 PM
Tell you what guys. I 'll go check out how much run support Cain and Lincecum get. That should shed a lot of light for sure. I suspect that Lincecum gets a great deal more run support than Cain does.

But this is not the entire story. The question is why does Lincecum get the support ,and Cain does not? Luck? Sometimes, but not game, after game, after game. This goes to the question why does Cain get no support? The answer maybe what will turn around his career.:eek:

McCovey
07-02-2008, 06:02 PM
Kid, you really do not believe that Cain is as good as Lincecum do you? They are light years apart in talent and mental toughness! :confused:
Mental toughness is difficult to judge from afar. However, I do not agree they are light years apart in talent. Cain has been a top prospect since he was drafted. He's younger than Lincecum and debuted in the majors barely three years out of high school at age 20. To me that is impressive. Also, the 17 games I listed for '07 are pretty much a match for how Lincecum has been pitching so far in '08. I will say that Lincecum is more consistent. Lincecum is a slightly better strikeout pitcher. While neither have great control at this point in their careers, Cain does have slightly better control.

McCovey
07-02-2008, 06:11 PM
But this is not the entire story. The question is why does Lincecum get the support ,and Cain does not? Luck? Sometimes, but not game, after game, after game. This goes to the question why does Cain get no support? The answer maybe what will turn around his career.:eek:
That's a good question. But I don't think it's because his teammates don't like him. I'll post this again for seven of his '08 starts.


Date IP H ER BB K Dec
04/01 5.2 3 0 4 5 ND
04/12 6.2 3 2 3 5 ND
04/23 7.0 5 1 3 7 ND
05/03 7.0 3 2 1 8 ND
05/25 6.0 5 2 2 6 ND
05/30 7.0 7 3 1 6 ND
06/14 7.0 6 3 1 11 L
Look at all these no-decisions so far. He gave up 0, 2, 1, 2, 2, and 3 runs. That's a 2.29 ERA in six starts and zero wins. His Giant teammates must think Cain is real prick to not get more runs for him! :p Does Cain have to pitch a complete game shutout every time to win a ballgame? :o

SF Kid
07-02-2008, 06:16 PM
Why doesn't Cain get more support? Because the team is terrible and doesn't score runs when he pitches. That's pretty simple. Luck...yeah. Linecum has been a lot luckier having this lousy team to score runs when he pitches. It's pure luck in that regard.

Bear
07-02-2008, 06:51 PM
Why doesn't Cain get more support? Because the team is terrible and doesn't score runs when he pitches. That's pretty simple. Luck...yeah. Linecum has been a lot luckier having this lousy team to score runs when he pitches. It's pure luck in that regard.

Here is where we differ. Luck only goes so far, and I believe we create are own luck. You guys might not want to see it that way, but there is a reason why one of these two gets support and the other does not. The answer is not luck because it happens too often. Example: The Bear is a winner and the Kid is a loser. Is the Bear luckier than the Kid or is he just better. My answer is the Bear is just good and the Kid is just bad. :p

McCovey
07-02-2008, 06:52 PM
Here is where we differ. Luck only goes so far, and I believe we create are own luck. You guys might not want to see it that way, but there is a reason why one of these two gets support and the other does not. The answer is not luck because it happens too often. Example: The Bear is a winner and the Kid is a loser. Is the Bear luckier than the Kid or is he just better. My answer is the Bear is just good and the Kid is just bad. :p

:pound:You kill me sometimes, Bear! :pound:

SF Kid
07-02-2008, 08:22 PM
You kill me sometimes, Bear. Why? Cuz you're so full of shit. Jesus H. Christ. Luck has everything to do with it when the ball club is bad as the Giants. What goes around comes around. Lincecum will have his share of no support and then what will you say then?...``Tim pitched great but he got no support". :banghead:

Bear
07-02-2008, 09:19 PM
You kill me sometimes, Bear. Why? Cuz you're so full of shit. Jesus H. Christ. Luck has everything to do with it when the ball club is bad as the Giants. What goes around comes around. Lincecum will have his share of no support and then what will you say then?...``Tim pitched great but he got no support". :banghead:

I don't think so! Why? Because Lincecum like the Bear is good!!;)

McCovey
07-02-2008, 09:42 PM
Ok, I've figured out the number of runs the Giants have scored for Lincecum and Cain.

Lincecum
109.2 IP the Giants have scored 69 runs. This is 5.66 runs per 9 innings or 4.05 runs per start.

Cain
113.1 IP the Giants have scored 49 runs. This is 3.89 runs per 9 innings or 2.72 runs per start.

This is quite a disparity in run support. :rolleyes:

Bear
07-03-2008, 12:26 AM
Ok, I've figured out the number of runs the Giants have scored for Lincecum and Cain.

Lincecum
109.2 IP the Giants have scored 69 runs. This is 5.66 runs per 9 innings or 4.05 runs per start.

Cain
113.1 IP the Giants have scored 49 runs. This is 3.89 runs per 9 innings or 2.72 runs per start.

This is quite a disparity in run support. :rolleyes:

Ok, but why is this happening? Luck is not the answer. So why?:confused:

McCovey
07-03-2008, 01:31 AM
I have no idea. :shrug: We are talking about 18 starts here so it may just be randomness. It may even out over the rest of the season. Stay tuned.

SF Kid
07-03-2008, 07:14 AM
Ok, but why is this happening? Luck is not the answer. So why?:confused:Yes it is the answer. It is the luck of the draw with this crappy ball club. Clearly there is no other answer. Cain isn't some sort of witch who puts a spell on the rest of the crappy ballplayers. Lincecum has been damn lucky to have this collection of misfits wake up every filth day. And to Timmy's credit he has pitched well and taken advantage of his good fortune. I don't see how you can attribute it to any thing other than luck or being unlucky.

Bear
07-03-2008, 08:52 AM
Yes it is the answer. It is the luck of the draw with this crappy ball club. Clearly there is no other answer. Cain isn't some sort of witch who puts a spell on the rest of the crappy ballplayers. Lincecum has been damn lucky to have this collection of misfits wake up every filth day. And to Timmy's credit he has pitched well and taken advantage of his good fortune. I don't see how you can attribute it to any thing other than luck or being unlucky.

Because I believe we create are own luck! Luck just does not happen. It is what you do with luck that matters. Cain is a average pitcher including his lucky days.:smack: