2008 amateur baseball draft

[McCovey]

From Keith Law, Part #1


College corner infielders, relievers represent strength of draft
By Keith Law
Scouts Inc.

Compared to recent drafts -- from the superstar-laden 2005 first round (Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki, Alex Gordon, Justin Upton, Ryan Zimmerman), to the Evan Longoria-Clayton Kershaw-Tim Lincecum top 10 in 2006, to last year's high school pitcher bonanza -- the pool of top-shelf talent in 2008 is subpar.

This year's crop better resembles 2004's low-upside college-centric first round. If you want to look at the glass as half-empty, this year's first round has more than a few things in common with the 2000 first round, which has produced three stars in Adrian Gonzalez, Chase Utley and Adam Wainwright, but which on the whole has been a dud. None of the 13 picks between Gonzalez (No. 1 overall) and Utley (No. 15) from that 2000 draft has appeared in a big league game this season, and eight of them have never appeared in the majors.

Corner-ing the market
The draft's top tier of talent is deepest in an unsexy area -- college corner infielders. That category of player has typically yielded high returns -- from past names like Mark Teixeira, Will Clark and Rafael Palmeiro to more recent picks including Gordon, Zimmerman, Braun and Nick Swisher -- but doesn't fit the standard first-round profile of players who offer a wide set of plus tools or pitchers with big fastballs and good breaking balls.

The 2008 draft should see three college corner infielders go in the top 10 picks (South Carolina first baseman Justin Smoak, Miami first baseman Yonder Alonso and Vanderbilt third baseman Pedro Alvarez). All three have plus raw power; Smoak is a switch-hitter who plays great defense, while Alonso has an outstanding eye at the plate, and Alvarez offers the promise of greater value relative to position. The first round should also include Cal first baseman David Cooper and Wichita State third baseman Conor Gillaspie, while South Carolina third baseman James Darnell and Wake Forest first baseman Allen Dykstra should be early selections. None offers the upside of the front three, but all project as average big leaguers.

Relief efforts
It's a very strong year for college relievers, which is good news for teams looking to spend a top pick on a now player who can help them in 2008 or, at worst, in 2009, but bad news for teams in the latter half of the first round hoping to land an impact long-term prospect. The crop is led by two righties, TCU's Andrew Cashner and Georgia's Josh Fields, who both sit in the 95-97 mph range with plus breaking balls, as well as Mississippi State's Aaron Weatherford, whose splitter may be the best swing-and-miss pitch in the draft. Weatherford's strikeout rate, on a per inning and per batter faced basis, is actually ahead of that of Ryan Wagner, the 13th overall pick in 2003 out of Houston who reached the big leagues that summer.

Behind that troika sits a long list of college relievers and closers with somewhat lower upsides but who still offer that same quick-to-the-big-leagues potential. Arizona's Daniel Schlereth, son of my colleague Mark Schlereth, has exploded up draft boards in the last three weeks, as his velocity has jumped into the mid-90s, and at times he's had two pitches that would grade out at 65 or better on the 20-80 scale. Purdue's Josh Lindblom followed up a strong Cape Cod League performance with a dominant run through the Big Ten this spring, boasting a very sharp curveball, above-average velocity, and great control.

Rice's Bryan Price came out of nowhere after a near-8 ERA in 2007, and could either move quickly as a closer or be converted to a starting role in pro ball. The parade should continue with Kyle Weiland (Notre Dame), Bryan Shaw (Long Beach State), and Zach Stewart (Texas Tech). And that's without considering Scott Green, the enigmatic Kentucky pitcher who has touched 96 this spring but doesn't show the same stuff from one outing to the next; or Brett Jacobson (Vanderbilt), who has touched 98 but doesn't pitch in critical situations because his command is poor.

That depth in college relievers is necessary to balance out the scarcity of top-end high school arms. The 2007 draft's first round featured eight high school pitchers and 17 high school players in total, both the highest since the 2000 first round, but this year's top round may look more like those of 2003 and 2005, with just three prep arms taken in each (Chad Billingsley, Jeff Allison, and John Danks in 2003, and Chris Volstad, Aaron Thompson, and Mark Pawelek in 2005). Only two high school pitchers are very likely to go in the first 30 picks: Ethan Martin from Toccoa, Ga., and two-way star Aaron Hicks from Long Beach, Calif., with a handful of others vying to go in the final third of the round.

Weak prep arms
What's lacking in this year's high school pitching class is arm strength. There are very few high school seniors this year who consistently work in the mid-90s, and only Martin and Hicks have that in combination with other positive attributes -- both are athletic two-way players with good breaking balls -- to solidify themselves as first-rounders. They could be joined by Gerrit Cole, a very hard-throwing right-hander from Orange, Calif., who reportedly hit triple digits in a playoff outing, but whose signability is questionable between his advisor (Scott Boras) and college commitment (UCLA).

The best of the rest include players with good command and secondary stuff but average fastballs, like shortstop/right-handed pitcher (and Tennessee quarterback recruit) Casey Kelly of Sarasota, Fla.,; pitchers who've seen their stuff and stock slip slightly this spring, like Tim Melville of Wentzville, Mo.; or one-pitch guys with other question marks, like Jake Odorizzi of Highland, Ill., and Jason Knapp of Annandale, N.J.

Compared that to last year's class, which ran deep with high-ceiling prep arms -- from the more polished Rick Porcello and Jarrod Parker -- either of whom would comfortably be the best in this class -- to raw but still talented Chris Withrow and Madison Bumgarner to two-way player Michael Main. Last year, teams drafting in the last half of the first round knew they'd have their pick of hard-throwing teenaged pitchers with second pitches and/or physical projection; this year, the same teams are preparing to be disappointed with the high school pool that's going to reach them.

[McCovey]

Keith Lae, Part #2


Sign of the times
Compounding the problem is the number of "signability" players from the 2005 draft who went to school but didn't improve their draft stock in the three years they were gone. Three of the top players in this draft were solid prospects out of high school, with Pedro Alvarez and Justin Smoak both looking for seven-figure bonuses in 2005 but likely to more than double that this year. But Justin Bristow (East Carolina) and Jordan Danks (Texas) had chances to go in the first round in 2005, and will be lucky to be first-day drafts this year, and David Adams (Virginia), Brett Jacobson, and Zach Putnam (Michigan) also lost ground in the three years they spent in school. Smoak's college teammate, Reese Havens, was in the latter group until he surged offensively this year. While he may not get first-round money, he should go before the second round starts. Signability players who slip in the draft and end up in college can provide a solid layer of impact talent in the draft three years down the road, but the 2005 crop proved a mixed bag.

The most interesting subplot in this year's draft will be whether the slotting system, already on life support, collapses entirely. "Slotting" is the informally-enforced practice by the commissioner's office of telling teams what they should pay their top picks in the draft. The number is determined not by player quality, but by the pick number. Just as the draft itself was instituted to reduce the amount of money the industry was giving to amateur players, the slotting system (not enforced by formal punishment for violators) was designed to stem the rapid growth in amateur bonuses in the 1990s, and even to roll those bonuses back. Certain teams have broken with these recommendations, particularly to sign players advised by Boras, but by and large, teams played ball with Bud Selig and the system's overseer, Frank Coonelly, who's now the Pirates' team president.

Last year, the commissioner's office sent out slot "recommendations" that were about 10 percent below the 2006 figures, and the system snapped. By my estimate, 12 players received bonuses over the 2007 slot figures, although many of them received the slot figures for the equivalent pick in the 2006 draft. Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Detroit, the Cubs, Kansas City, and the Yankees all exceeded their slot recommendations by significant numbers. The Yankees and Red Sox both spent heavily in later rounds of the draft, signing three and five players respectively over the commissioner's round recommendations after the fourth round, while Detroit and Baltimore each splurged on a first-round talent in the fifth round. The more that teams break the system, the more it will embolden agents (other than Boras, who seems to look upon the slotting system as something that other people have to worry about) to demand more money for their clients than the system offers.

Aaron Crow and Yonder Alonso are both rumored to be looking for money well over any slot recommendation, and a wide range of high school prospects, including every Vanderbilt recruit, are also looking for first-round money to buy them away from college. Combine the increased resolve of certain agents with the ire of teams that have walked in lockstep with the commissioner's office only to see premium players make their way to the teams that disobeyed the edicts and a new sheriff responsible for enforcement (Dan Halem, the replacement for Coonelly), and you have a powder keg waiting for someone to light the match.

Keith Law, formerly the special assistant to the general manager for the Toronto Blue Jays, is the senior baseball analyst for Scouts Inc.

[McCovey]

Keith Law's final pre-draft list, part #1.

Rays expected to grab Beckham No. 1

By Keith Law
Scouts Inc.
Thursday, June 5, 2008

Only hours before the draft, here's a cut at where things stand:

1. Tampa Bay -- Tim Beckham (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18734&draftyear=2008), SS, Griffin (Ga.) H.S.

Tampa is going down to the wire on this pick, but late Wednesday night, indications are that the pendulum has swung to Beckham, the best overall player in the draft. If it's not him, it's could be Buster Posey, although Posey is pushing for a $12 million price tag, which would be the highest bonus ever given to a player in the draft.

2. Pittsburgh -- Pedro Alvarez (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18714&draftyear=2008), 3B, Vanderbilt

The Pirates do believe Alvarez is the best player on the board, and it seems like he's their pick regardless of who Tampa takes.

3. Kansas City -- Eric Hosmer (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18708&draftyear=2008), 1B, American Heritage H.S. (Plantation, Fla.)

This seems reasonably close to a lock, although if Alvarez is there, the Royals will take him instead. Brian Matusz, Aaron Crow and Justin Smoak have all been rumored here.

4. Baltimore -- Brian Matusz (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18740&draftyear=2008), LHP, San Diego

Word today has the Orioles preferring Matusz. Crow is also a strong possibility here, and the Orioles were willing to pay over slot last year. If the Royals pass on Hosmer for some reason (e.g., Pittsburgh takes Posey and K.C. takes Alvarez), the Orioles would likely switch up and take Hosmer.

5. San Francisco -- Buster Posey (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18727&draftyear=2008), C, Florida State

Posey stops here or at the next pick. The Giants could take Gordon Beckham, which would probably lead to Brett Lawrie's going seventh to Cincinnati.

6. Florida -- Kyle Skipworth (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18758&draftyear=2008), C, Patriot H.S. (Riverside, Calif.)

The Marlins won't let Posey get past them, but failing that, they have given up on Yonder Alonso (who wants $8 million and a major league deal) and will take Skipworth.

7. Cincinnati -- Gordon Beckham (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18726&draftyear=2008), SS, Georgia

Beckham would come quickly for the Reds and give them a pretty strong, young offensive core. They have been and continue to be high on Brett Lawrie as well.

8. Chicago White Sox -- Justin Smoak (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18720&draftyear=2008), 1B, South Carolina

The White Sox have been connected to just about every name available here, including Skipworth, Brett Wallace, Jason Castro (godson of front-office exec Alan Regier) and Gordon Beckham. They'd probably take Beckham over Smoak; Castro would be an overdraft at this spot.

9. Washington -- Yonder Alonso (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18724&draftyear=2008), 1B, Miami

Alonso and Crow seem to be the preferred names here. Washington's also been linked to Skipworth, but GM Jim Bowden apparently prefers a college player who'll move quickly.

10. Houston -- Ethan Martin (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18705&draftyear=2008), RHP, Stephens County H.S. (Toccoa, Ga.)

Houston would love Skipworth if he got here, but that only happens if Alonso comes down in price and, at the same time, Bowden still overrules the scouting department in Washington.

11. Texas -- Aaron Crow (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18757&draftyear=2008), RHP, Missouri

Texas could pass on Crow due to his cost and take Christian Friedrich, but the Rangers haven't been afraid to shell out for better players, and they've got Crow rated over Friedrich and Martin, should he get here.

12. Oakland -- Jemile Weeks (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18723&draftyear=2008), 2B, Miami

Perhaps the first huge surprise of the draft. The A's would love to get Gordon Beckham, but he shouldn't fall out of the top 10.

13. St. Louis -- Christian Friedrich (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18743&draftyear=2008), LHP, Eastern Kentucky

Gordon Beckham's absolute floor is here. The Cardinals have also been sitting on Andrew Cashner, but seem to be leaning toward a starter over a reliever.

14. Minnesota -- Aaron Hicks (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18738&draftyear=2008), RHP/RF, Wilson H.S. (Long Beach, Calif.)

The Twins are on all of the athletic, high-upside high school bats, including Anthony Hewitt and Zach Collier. Hicks is the best of the lot.

15. Los Angeles -- Daniel Schlereth (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18767&draftyear=2008), LHP, Arizona

The Dodgers haven't been thrilled with the lack of polished high school players in this draft, and might punt and take a reliever instead, with Schlereth, Andrew Cashner and Ryan Perry all candidates. The one high school name that is hot here is Collier.

[McCovey]

Part #2

16. Milwaukee -- Jason Castro (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18754&draftyear=2008), C, Stanford

The Brewers never tell anyone what they're doing; they won't even confirm that there's a draft on Thursday. Lawrie and Hewitt are possibilities here.

17. Toronto -- Brett Wallace (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18731&draftyear=2008), 3B/1B, Arizona State

The Blue Jays aren't thrilled with Wallace's body, but I'm not sure how they could pass on the bat. They also took him out of high school. I've also heard Cashner, David Cooper and Lawrie.

18. New York Mets -- Ike Davis (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18733&draftyear=2008), 1B, Arizona State

The Mets are looking primarily at college bats and have been rumored for several days to favor Davis here. Castro would also be a candidate if he gets here.

19. Chicago Cubs -- Andrew Cashner (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18749&draftyear=2008), RHP, TCU

I had heard the Cubs were linked to Casey Kelly, but that seems to have been overstated. The Cubs are also the high spot for Jake Odorizzi, and have had some interest in Tim Melville. Brett Lawrie and Niko Vasquez both played well in a recent workout in Mesa, too.

20. Seattle -- Tanner Scheppers (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18781&draftyear=2008), RHP, Fresno State

The Mariners are comfortable with the state of Scheppers' shoulder, although most other teams appear to be shying away. Shooter Hunt's name is also surfacing here.

21. Detroit -- Josh Fields (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18766&draftyear=2008), RHP, Georgia

Unless they take Gerrit Cole, it seems like the Tigers will go for a reliever here to try to address the major league 'pen. They have Cashner over Fields, and like Perry a little less than Fields.

22. New York Mets -- Conor Gillaspie (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18751&draftyear=2008), 3B, Wichita State

The Mets are known to be looking for bats, but it doesn't appear that they would take Reese Havens or Ryan Flaherty this high, and probably won't follow up Davis with another first baseman in Cooper.

23. San Diego -- Shooter Hunt (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18707&draftyear=2008), RHP, Tulane

Hunt looked like a top-15 pick as late as mid-April, but stumbled down the stretch. He still offers a chance for two-plus pitches and misses a lot of bats; although the Padres haven't had great luck with college starters, this is pretty good value for where they pick.

24. Philadelphia -- Zach Collier (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18756&draftyear=2008), OF, Chino Hills (Calif.) H.S.

Collier won't get past the Twins at No. 27 if the Phillies go with Hewitt or Jason Knapp here.

25. Colorado -- Jake Odorizzi (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18706&draftyear=2008), RHP, Highland (Ill.) H.S.

Odorizzi has been a target for the Rockies for a few weeks now, although Hewitt and Collier are both in their mix.

26. Arizona -- Brett Lawrie (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18744&draftyear=2008), C/2B, Brookswood SS (Canada)

Given the hype on Lawrie over the past six weeks, I'd be surprised if he fell this far, but I haven't heard him connected that strongly to anyone above here other than the Reds and Brewers.

27. Minnesota -- Anthony Hewitt (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18780&draftyear=2008), SS, Salisbury (Conn.) School

Hewitt's tool set is tremendous, and a handful of teams in the 20s and 30s, including the Phillies, Rockies and Brewers, are high on him. He shouldn't last to the middle of the supplemental round.

28. New York Yankees -- Gerrit Cole (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18739&draftyear=2008), RHP, Lutheran H.S. (Orange, Calif.)

Cole could land in Detroit, or here or out of the first round. The Yankees have also been rumored to be on Casey Kelly, as well as some college bats like Davis and Cooper.

29. Cleveland -- Reese Havens (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18721&draftyear=2008), SS, South Carolina

The Indians' targets are mostly college players, nearly all likely to be picked ahead of them. They'd take Havens as an infielder; some teams would like to put him behind the plate, but he's not excited about the possibility, if not outright opposed to it.

30. Boston -- David Cooper (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18759&draftyear=2008), 1B, California

The biggest wild card in the draft might be this pick because the Red Sox have the money to take anyone they'd like, but might not like the players who want the most money. Other possibilities: Schlereth or Gillaspie if either gets here, or another reliever such as Bryan Price or Aaron Weatherford.

[McCovey]

Hey Sabean, wake up! There are some quality left-handed first basemen in this year's draft.

At first, take your pick

By Jerry Crasnick, ESPN.com
Wednesday, June 4, 2008

For years, Major League Baseball teams have had a fascination with first basemen who can rake, and a corresponding reluctance to select them early in the draft. Nothing captivates scouting directors more than a polished hitter with tape-measure capability. But red flags have an extended shelf life in the scouting world, and old adages tend to linger for a reason. Talent evaluators agree that hitting is the most challenging skill to assess, and the risks are magnified at first base. Make the right call, and you might wind up with a cornerstone-type player like Todd Helton (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=5870) to anchor your lineup for years to come. Choose the wrong bat, and you could be stuck with an immobile, defensively challenged drag on your franchise's ambitions. Let's pause to reflect on the 1982 draft, which featured Steve Stanicek, Franklin Stubbs, Jeff Ledbetter and Sam Horn among the top 26 selections. That's four first base-DH types who amassed a total of 855 major league hits -- 602 of them by Stubbs. "The bat is the hardest thing to scout," said Mike Rizzo, Washington Nationals assistant general manager. "But at least if you make a mistake on a shortstop and he can't hit, he could become a really good defensive shortstop or a utility player on your club. If you miss on the bat at first base, you've got nothing." If there's a theme to the 2008 MLB draft, it's the surplus of high quality, left-handed hitting first basemen available. How stacked is this group? Some talent evaluators compare it to the 2005 third base crop, which featured Alex Gordon (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=7907), Ryan Braun (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=7856) and Ryan Zimmerman (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=7627). ESPN.com's Keith Law predicts that six first basemen could go in the first round, and Baseball America projects seven first basemen among the top 36 picks. "I've never seen anything like it -- this many good, college, left-handed hitting first basemen out there," Rizzo said. "It's really remarkable. Some years, you have to go out and grab that big power college bat. This year, there are enough of them to go around." The list includes:

• South Carolina's Justin Smoak (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18720&draftyear=2008), a switch-hitter and strong defender who has drawn the obligatory Mark Teixeira (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=6788) comparisons. He hits for average, hits with power and has soft hands and nimble feet around the bag. The complete package.

• Florida high schooler Eric Hosmer (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18708&draftyear=2008), a lefty with power, athleticism and a 95 mph fastball when he stows the first baseman's mitt and takes the mound. Hosmer is a Scott Boras advisee and has the leverage of a scholarship offer from Arizona State, so he won't come cheap.

• Miami's Yonder Alonso (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18724&draftyear=2008), a Cuban émigré with gaudy numbers and a patient, professional approach at the plate. Alonso opted for college after Minnesota drafted him out of Coral Gables (Fla.) High School in the 16th round in 2005, but now he's poised to make a splash.

• California's David Cooper (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18759&draftyear=2008), a third-team All-America and a semifinalist for the Golden Spikes Award and Dick Howser Trophy. He hit 19 homers and posted a .682 slugging percentage this year for the Golden Bears.

• Arizona State's Ike Davis (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18733&draftyear=2008), the son of former Yankees and Twins reliever Ron Davis. He came back from wrist surgery to slug .778 this spring, which raised his profile. Because of his strong arm, Davis is a candidate to shift to a corner outfield spot down the road.

• Arizona State's Brett Wallace (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18731&draftyear=2008). He leads a strong Sun Devils team with a .414 average, 21 homers and 81 RBIs. Wallace has played third base in college, but he's listed at 6 foot 1 and 245 pounds, and some scouts project him as a first baseman in the pros.

• Wake Forest's Allan Dykstra (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18704&draftyear=2008). A San Diego native, Dykstra led the Demon Deacons in batting average, homers, runs, RBIs, on base percentage and slugging. He also drew a ton of walks after pitchers took a look at that 6-foot-5, 240-pound frame and decided they wanted no part of him.

In reality, the first base position has hardly been a wasteland in recent years. Prince Fielder (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=7290), Adrian Gonzalez (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=7054), Casey Kotchman (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=7293) and James Loney (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=7725) have all gone in the first round since 2000, and their current employers have absolutely no reason to complain. When the Milwaukee Brewers chose Fielder with the No. 7 overall pick in 2002, Cecil's kid was praised for his hitting acumen and routinely derided for his weight. Five years later, Fielder has a 50-home run season and a Hank Aaron award on his résumé. His example could prove instructive to Arizona State's Wallace, who has heavy thighs and has been described by some as a "good athlete trapped in a bad body.

" http://assets.espn.go.com/i/story/design07/dropQuote.gif The old adage is, 'If you draft a third baseman, someday he'll become a first baseman. If you draft a left fielder, someday he'll become a first baseman.' But today's game is a lot different. There are a lot more good two-way players at first base. http://assets.espn.go.com/i/story/design07/dropQuoteEnd.gif

--Mike Rizzo, Nationals assistant general manager

Milwaukee scouting director Jack Zduriencik was fervent in his pursuit of Fielder, even though the Brewers had two other first basemen, Corey Hart (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=7336) and Brad Nelson, in the minor league pipeline at the time. Hart has since shifted to the outfield, and Nelson is currently playing first base for Nashville in the Pacific Coast League. "I said it back then, and I've always felt this way: In our opinion, Prince Fielder was the best hitter in the country, and he happened to have big-time power," Zduriencik said. "We thought one day he'd hit .300 with 40 home runs, and he's already exceeded one of those [projections]." When Rizzo was a southeast scout for the White Sox in 1989, Chicago drafted Auburn first baseman Frank Thomas (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=4527) with the seventh overall pick even though the Major League Scouting Bureau ranked Thomas in the 80-90 range among prospects. During his tenure as scouting director in Arizona, Rizzo chose California third baseman Conor Jackson (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=7486) 19th overall with the intention of moving him to first. As long as there's baseball, players will gravitate to first from other spots on the field. Cleveland's Ryan Garko (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=7503) and Minnesota's Justin Morneau (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=7063) are former catchers. Houston's Lance Berkman (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=6279) broke into the majors as an outfielder, and St. Louis's Albert Pujols (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=6619) and Boston's Kevin Youkilis (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=7049) both have experience at third. If anything has changed, it's the expectations at the position. While Philadelphia's Ryan Howard (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=7437) fits the profile of the classic old-time belter, the Cubs' Derrek Lee (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=5775) is a smooth defender who's closing in on his 100th career stolen base. "The old adage is, 'If you draft a third baseman, someday he'll become a first baseman. If you draft a left fielder, someday he'll become a first baseman,'" Rizzo said. "But today's game is a lot different. There are a lot more good two-way players at first base." Some draft analysts regard the 2008 first base onslaught as a one-year aberration. After eight high school pitchers went in the opening round last year, the 2008 prep contingent is decidedly weaker. These things typically go in cycles. But Logan White, the Los Angeles Dodgers' assistant GM for scouting, thinks we might be on the verge of a trend for two reasons: (1) Baseball teams love "run-and-throw" guys, but the pure athletes have turned more toward football and basketball in recent years; and (2) with so many teenagers playing for select travel teams and receiving private hitting instruction, offensive skills are advancing by leaps and bounds. "You have kids who aren't the athletic, Ozzie Smith-types in the middle of the diamond, and they're going over to the corners," White said. "And they can hit. They can mash." And as long as baseball values offense, the kids will get picked early in the draft and reap the benefits. The demand for mashers has always existed. This year, there's plenty of supply to meet it.

[SF Kid]

Don't disturb Brian's beauty rest Mac.

[Bear]

Don't disturb Brian's beauty rest Mac.

If he does not get some help and soon either by the draft, trades, or free agency, that beauty rest will become the BIG sleep if you get my drift.

[McCovey]

If he does not get some help and soon either by the draft, trades, or free agency, that beauty rest will become the BIG sleep if you get my drift.
Sabean will be sleeping with the fishes?

[McCovey]

What the hell? The Giants took a catcher with their first pick? :rolleyes:

From ESPN:


Buster Posey is the best catcher in the draft, and he is likely to move quickly. There is very little downside to Posey. Defensively, he can play in the big leagues right now. Catching is a glaring need for the Giants in their farm system. And Posey is one of the best makeup guys in the draft.What the hell are they talking about? Are the Giants not high on Pablo Sandoval?

[McCovey]

Here's a short summary on Posey.

Ultimate Role: Top of the order


Summary: Posey, like Jorge Posada, is a converted infielder who has found a home behind the plate. Unlike Posada, however, Posey is going to be a plus defender as a backstop, and combined with his offensive skill set, he's one of the top talents in the draft pool. Posey has a quick, compact stroke with good bad control, covering the zone well and showing good recognition of balls and strikes. He doesn't project to hit for more than average power with wood; he leaks slightly at the plate, and while he has some loft in his swing, he gets under balls when swinging a wood bat. Behind the dish, he has great energy, a plus arm, and soft hands. He's the safest player in this draft, because he has the defensive skill set to play in the majors and enough bat to at least be a backup even if he never improves an iota, but his upside is as a No. 2 or No. 3 hitter who hits for average, gets on base, hits a ton of doubles with 15-20 homers, all while providing plus defense.



. PRESENT FUTURE
Hitting 45 55
Power 40 50
Plate Discipline 45 55
Running Speed 45 45
Fielding Range 55 65
Arm Strength 60 65
Feel for Game 60 60

[Bear]

What the hell are they talking about? Are the Giants not high on Pablo Sandoval?

I guess not. This is the guy they think will replace Big Money.:p

[SF Kid]

Who is "big Money"? :confused:

[Bear]

Who is "big Money"? :confused:

You do live in the sticks and under a rock! Big Money is the nickname for Bengie Molina.:beerbang:

With two picks in for the Giants I think it is time to replace the entire front office from the GM down. A catcher with a fair talent, and a third baseman with no power, and middle of the road defensive talent. If we can't do better than that then the Bear gives up. I believe that the three of us (Mac, Bear and even the Kid) could do a better job than this. Pitiful!:mad:

[McCovey]

There were like 4-5 quality power first basemen in the first round and the Giants passed on all of them. :rolleyes:

[McCovey]

I believe that the three of us (Mac, Bear and even the Kid) could do a better job than this. Pitiful!:mad:

Our first order of business would be to fire Sabean and hire Kim Ng. We'd meet with "Kimmy" (hopefully she'll let us call her that) and sit down and have Kimmy tell us her plan to build the Giants into a World Series contender. :D

Then after that I can be in charge of marketing, Kid, you can be in charge of player development, and Bear, you can be in charge of beer. :toast:

[Bear]

Our first order of business would be to fire Sabean and hire Kim Ng. We'd meet with "Kimmy" (hopefully she'll let us call her that) and sit down and have Kimmy tell us her plan to build the Giants into a World Series contender. :D

Then after that I can be in charge of marketing, Kid, you can be in charge of player development, and Bear, you can be in charge of beer. :toast:

No,no. I will just be in charge of everything. We need to have Sue Burns name me the new managing general partner.

[SF Kid]

Who is Sue Burns? :confused:

[Bear]

Who is Sue Burns? :confused:

She owns the largest percentage of the Team!:rolleyes:

[McCovey]

Keith Law loved the Giants '08 draft and rated the Giants the #1 draft! Wow.


Friday, June 6, 2008
Best and worst of the first six rounds

By Keith Law
Scouts Inc.

After reviewing the first six rounds of Thursday's draft, I believe we probably will see more money spent on signing bonuses in this draft than in any previous draft. There are at least a half-dozen first-rounders who are going to blow past their slot recommendations and a large number of tough-sign high school players who could get first-round money or close to it.

Here's a review of the 202 selections on Day 1:

Best drafts


http://assets.espn.go.com/i/teamlogos/mlb/med/sfo.gif 1. San Francisco Giants


Buster Posey (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18727&draftyear=2008) falling to them at No. 5 was part luck, but the Giants also had the guts to take him. Posey reportedly is asking for $12 million. Sandwich pick Conor Gillaspie (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18751&draftyear=2008) should have gone in the first round, and Roger Kieschnick (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18765&draftyear=2008) has first-round potential despite mediocre performances. Keep an eye on fifth-rounder Edwin Quirarte, a reliever from Cal State Northridge with big-time sink on his fastball and an improving splitter.

http://assets.espn.go.com/i/teamlogos/mlb/med/bos.gif 2. Boston Red Sox


Boston bet it all on red, taking one high-ceiling player after another. Apparently, they're willing to worry about the signability of these players later on. Casey Kelly (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18745&draftyear=2008) is a first-rounder as a pitcher or position player, but his bonus demands and commitment to play quarterback at Tennessee scared off potential suitors. Ryan Westmoreland's bonus demands ($1.6 to $2.1 million) and commitment to Vanderbilt had him viewed as completely unsignable all spring, even though he was a top-40 talent and had performed well over the summer with a wood bat. Bryan Price (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18750&draftyear=2008) was totally misused at Rice, and was one of the best reliever-to-starter conversion opportunities in the draft. Derrik Gibson and Pete Hissey are both athletic, projectable tools players with the chance to play in the middle of the field (Gibson as a shortstop/second baseman, Hissey as a center fielder); both also have commitments to strong college programs (North Carolina and Virginia, respectively). Even if the Red Sox don't sign all four of those high school talents, signing Kelly and one of the others would be an impressive haul of talent -- and we know the Sox have the resources to sign more than just two.

http://assets.espn.go.com/i/teamlogos/mlb/med/kan.gif 3. Kansas City Royals


With the Royals apparently poised to sign fourth-rounder Tim Melville (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18702&draftyear=2008), who prior to the draft appeared unsignable outside of the first round, this could be a banner draft for the team. K.C. nabbed three players ranked in my top 40, a figure matched only by the next team on this list. Eric Hosmer (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18708&draftyear=2008) is an impact player who should advance quickly, and Michael Montgomery (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18762&draftyear=2008), who offers projection and a clean delivery, was a gut-feel favorite of mine. The Royals also took high school right-hander Tyler Sample (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18774&draftyear=2008), who had back-of-the-first-round stuff on his better days, ranked 64th on my top 75 list (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/draft2008/insider/news/story?id=3427215).

http://assets.espn.go.com/i/teamlogos/mlb/med/stl.gif 4. St. Louis Cardinals


St. Louis got several great value picks: Brett Wallace (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18731&draftyear=2008), who might be the best pure college bat in the draft; Lance Lynn (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18715&draftyear=2008), a solid mid-rotation guy who's very aggressive with his fastball; and Niko Vasquez (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18764&draftyear=2008), who fell because of the silly notion that shortstops need to be average or better runners. It's a high-probability draft, as Wallace, Lynn and Scott Gorgen are all extremely likely to be big leaguers; Vasquez has a very high chance of becoming an everyday big leaguer relative to most high school hitters. The Cardinals' draft is missing just one thing: upside. They draft conservatively, and this group of players is no exception, although they could certainly address that issue on Day 2. Incidentally, I know the Cardinals are taking a lot of criticism for not drafting Melville, but as mentioned earlier, Melville had indicated to teams that he wanted top-15 pick money, making him unsignable and a potentially wasted pick had the Cardinals selected him in the compensation or second round, when there were talented signable players available such as Lynn and Vasquez.

http://assets.espn.go.com/i/teamlogos/mlb/med/det.gif 5. Detroit Tigers


Detroit's draft really isn't my kind of draft. With six picks on Day 1, the Tigers took four true college relievers, plus a college starter (Ole Miss' Cody Satterwhite (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18716&draftyear=2008)), who projects as a reliever in pro ball. I like this draft because I'm secretly hoping that the Tigers' master plan is to fire nearly all of their relievers and replace them with the five guys they just drafted. It's a nervy strategy, but general manager Dave Dombrowski will never be accused of a lack of nerve.


Other observations


• In conversations with scouts and execs, San Diego's draft is coming up on the list of "worst" drafts -- but I'm going to defend it for a moment. Allan Dykstra (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18704&draftyear=2008) was an overdraft, especially since I don't see him playing third base in the majors, and Jaff Decker (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18775&draftyear=2008) is going to have to hit at the right tail of his projections to be able to play every day in that huge park. But they got a potential sleeper in Logan Forsythe (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18769&draftyear=2008), who is a much better hitter than his overall stat line indicates and is a potential convert to catcher (he's caught some before, and one team that worked him out as a catcher predraft said he was a natural fit there).

• And if you like the upside-or-death approach, the Phillies decided to do it naturally, taking the toolsiest tools in the draft, landing five from my top 75, but with four of them coming from after the 66th pick. If they can sign Anthony Gose (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18772&draftyear=2008) and convince him to pitch, they will have obtained a first-round arm with the 51st overall pick. Keep an eye on fourth-rounder Trevor May, a Washington high school right-hander. May's velocity ticked upward late in the spring, when the weather warmed up in the Northwest. The Phillies had a risky Day 1, but the potential reward is pretty significant.

• The worst pick of the day belongs to the White Sox, who took GM Kenny Williams' son in the fifth round. Kenny Williams Jr. is a senior at Wichita State who doesn't even play every day and who was ruled academically ineligible for the 2007 season. He's a good athlete and at least a 55 runner, but he's 22 years old, played in 12 games in total prior to 2008, and wasn't on most teams' draft boards, although two or three other teams appeared to have had him inside the 10th round. It is hard to imagine that he would have been their 5th-round pick if his name was Kenny Smith, but the White Sox liked Kenny Jr.'s athleticism, something that was relatively scarce in this draft's pool of college position players.

Two other surprising picks: Houston's Jordan Lyles in the sandwich round, who was not ranked in my top 75 or Baseball America's top 200. Lyles is a big projection pitcher with a tough commitment to South Carolina, so Houston, who also took tough-sign Ross Seaton (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18748&draftyear=2008), might have felt compelled to take Lyles early to get him to agree to terms. … Washington selected high school catcher Adrian Nieto (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18709&draftyear=2008) in the fifth round despite the fact that he was telling teams not to draft him. It sounds like Nieto had a deal in place with another club. The two sides are already worlds apart financially.


Keith Law, formerly the special assistant to the general manager for the Toronto Blue Jays (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/clubhouse?team=tor), is the senior baseball analyst for Scouts Inc. (http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/scouts/index?&&lpos=globalnav&lid=gn_Scouts_Inc)

[Bear]

Look the guys the Giants drafted might be great, but from where I sit they did not take into consideration their own strong points, and their own needs. Catcher & Pitcher are strong areas for the Giants, and power at the corners is a weak area. You can stock pile players at certain positions, but then you don't put out on the field a balanced team.:confused:

[SF Kid]

Same old argument ... BPA vs need. :rolleyes:

[Bear]

BPA is a real cop out. You don't know who to take so you say well my choice is the best player available. Pure BS!

[SF Kid]

BPA is a real cop out. You don't know who to take so you say well my choice is the best player available. Pure BS!That may be true but MOST professional sports team use the BPA approach. You don't like it but that is what's down most often. Teams generally don't draft for need unless that need is the last piece of the puzzle they feel will get them over the top to win a championship. Bear, this is drafting 101 like it or not.

[Bear]

That may be true but MOST professional sports team use the BPA approach. You don't like it but that is what's down most often. Teams generally don't draft for need unless that need is the last piece of the puzzle they feel will get them over the top to win a championship. Bear, this is drafting 101 like it or not.

It's the wrong approach used by people who have no clue!:cool:

[SF Kid]

Yeah I don't like it either. The Raiders had huge needs on t he DL and went with RB McFadden because he was the top rated player in the whole draft (BPA). Sure he might be great but in the meantime the run defense is still going to be shitty -- I think.

A catcher? Well all we can hope is that he's the next Johnny Bench.

[McCovey]

I heard yesterday on KNBR that the Giants top pick, Buster Posey, is asking for $12 million to sign! Wow.

[Bear]

I heard yesterday on KNBR that the Giants top pick, Buster Posey, is asking for $12 million to sign! Wow.

Good luck Buster, the #1 pick did not get anything close to that figure.:nono:

[McCovey]

From sfgate.com


Team willing to let Posey 'catch his breath'

John Shea (jshea@sfchronicle.com)
Tuesday, June 17, 2008


Buster Posey's college season ended Monday when Florida State got eliminated in a 7-5 loss to Miami in the College World Series. Posey, the Giants' top pick in the June 5 draft, had four hits and finished his season with a .463 average, 26 homers and 93 RBIs in 68 games.

The next step in the catcher's career is to negotiate a signing bonus with the Giants. He's represented by Jeff Berry, and the Giants' point man in contract talks is Bobby Evans, director of player personnel.
On draft day, the Giants said they wouldn't begin negotiations until after Posey's season ends, and Evans didn't seem eager to push for a quick resolution, saying, "Typically, I'd let the kid catch his breath."
Florida State lost both its College World Series games, including a 16-5 decision to Stanford. Beforehand, Cardinal coach Mark Marquess said, "Buster Posey's numbers are like he's been playing against Little League pitchers." Against Stanford, Posey went 1-for-4 with two strikeouts and pitched in relief - he was charged with six runs (one earned) in one-third of an inning, prompting a Giants pitcher to say, "I don't think he'll relieve here."

No, he won't. He's the Giants' catcher of the future, so long as he signs. The deadline is Aug. 15; otherwise, he'd return for a senior season and go into next year's draft. But don't expect it. His value is already sky high as the fifth overall pick.

A report circulated before the draft that Posey was looking for $12 million, but it's no secret agents tend to leak exaggerated requests to help beef up the price. Asked if he or the Giants acknowledge such overstated reports, Evans said, "No. There's one spokesman for the player." That's Berry, though Evans said families generally have plenty of questions through the process.
I do agree that $12 million is just BS agent talk. :rolleyes: